Monday, July 15, 2013

Staying out of the Viper's Nest



by Zalman Shoval


Fraught with conflict, the surrounding Middle East is like a viper's den that Israel is doing its best not to stumble into. In the Sinai Peninsula, a bloody war is raging between the Egyptian military and Hamas-backed Islamic fundamentalists. That fighting could easily spill into Israel if it weren't for the border fence (which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for, despite the objection of the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, and which dramatically reduced infiltration from Africa). In the North, the situation is murkier yet. In Syria, battles are taking place not only between government forces and rebels, but also among the rebels themselves, and civil war has left a stain of blood spilling into Lebanon.

But it would be wrong to view the fires blazing around us as a mere sequence of violent outbursts. These events have far-reaching consequences, affecting both the struggle between Sunnis and Shiites and the balance of power between foreign countries stirring the pot (Iran, Turkey, Russia, the Gulf states and the U.S., whose current role in the situation is unclear, even to itself). Of course, Israel is not indifferent to what is taking place. Israel's immediate concern is that the events transpiring in its dangerous neighborhood do not threaten its current or future security. However, the long-term geopolitical implications of what is occurring are much broader, affecting issues like the defense budget and IDF planning.

In Syria, the picture includes more than just the struggle between the government and the rebels. The puppet masters, including Iran and Hezbollah, Russia, the Sunni Gulf states (which aren't united), Turkey and, as previously stated, a half-absent U.S. are also deeply involved. The bottom line is that all possible outcomes are unsavory. The other side of Israel's northern borders will be controlled, directly or indirectly, by Iran, jihadist elements, or the ongoing anarchy there that could also harm us. 

But the news might not all be bad. If the recent revolution in Egypt takes hold, it could thwart the advance of political Islam in other parts of the Arab world and perhaps even halt it completely. Until now, the growth of the political Islam had been the main result of the Arab Spring. It is also possible that the downfall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could lead to the weakening of Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian offshoot.

Hezbollah's situation is more complex. While Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian civil war has harmed the group, it will get a large chuck of the political booty if Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime emerges victorious. On the other hand, Hezbollah's status will be degraded if Assad loses. Both scenarios will have an impact on Israel's security situation.

The debate in Israel over the defense budget is not just about money, but also about what Israel must do to adapt to the new geopolitical reality it faces. While the immediate threat posed by conventional forces has decreased, the dangers posed by terrorist groups like al-Qaida (as well as Hezbollah and Hamas, even though they are currently in retreat) have increased. Such terrorists groups could act against Israel in ways that ignite a regional conflagration. And, of course, the greatest threat is Iran's nuclear program. The time remaining to stop that program is lessening with each passing day.


Zalman Shoval

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4981

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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