Tuesday, August 15, 2017

A reminder from Tehran and Beirut - Prof. Eyal Zisser




by Prof. Eyal Zisser

All this is taking place with Russia's blessing and under the open but blinkered eyes of Washington.

This week marked the 11th anniversary of the Second Lebanon War. Even as the battles raged, some said it was not just another war in the Lebanese arena -- this time between the IDF and Hezbollah -- but the first round in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Indeed, Hezbollah was and still is Iran's advance military force, created, funded and armed by Tehran, which still dictates the terrorist group's decisions.

The Second Lebanon War resulted in a prolonged period of quiet along the northern border, but it did not eradicate Hezbollah or its strength. Even more importantly, it did not prevent Iran from deepening its foothold in the Middle East. After the war in Lebanon came the war in Gaza, and now it is Syria's turn.

This week, we received a reminder of this complex reality from both Jerusalem and Beirut. First, from Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who warned that Iran is quickly filling the vacuum in the region following the defeat of Islamic State, with the goal of establishing a regional hegemony spanning from Iran to Yemen to the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. 

We also heard Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah deliver a speech on the anniversary of the war's end.

Nasrallah has been stuck in his bunker since the summer of 2006, and the only thing he can do is offer his followers fairy tales of the organization's successful battles against the IDF. However, he has decided to revert to threatening Israel with his missile capabilities. His threat of hitting the ammonia plant in Haifa, which is being emptied and relocated, has now expanded to include the nuclear reactor in Dimona. 

Nasrallah is a deterred leader, scarred by the blow he suffered during the war in Lebanon 11 years ago. He is afraid of another war with Israel. From this perspective, he has become a strategic Israeli asset, because there is no one better for the job of exhibiting restraint and maintaining the quiet along the border.

This quiet, though, is restricted to the border area. Deeper inside Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah continues to gather strength, not only with hands-on help from Iran, but also under the umbrella of its blatant presence on the ground. In Lebanon, this translates to Iran building missile factories to avoid having to ship its missiles from Iran through Syria to Hezbollah. In Syria, meanwhile, the Iranians are tightening their grip on large swathes of the country from where Islamic State has retreated. All this is taking place with Russia's blessing and under the open but blinkered eyes of Washington. Just this week, Amman wailed over the revelation that Shiite militias, controlled by Iran, had taken up positions along Jordan's border with Syria. 

During the Second Lebanon War, President George W. Bush's administration pushed Israel to pummel Hezbollah in an effort to curb Iran. Success in that regard, as we know, was partial and limited. Later came the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran, which granted the regime legitimacy and emboldened it to push ahead with its plans. 

Now the Americans and Russians have reached an understanding in Syria that could give the Iranians legitimacy to maintain a long-term presence there. Moreover, it gives Iran a land corridor linking Tehran to Beirut, via Baghdad and Damascus. Hamas' leadership, after reading the new regional map, is now prioritizing its relationship with Iran and has already dispatched a delegation to Tehran. All these factors render Israel, and incidentally Jordan too, alone to face the menacing Shiite crescent rising beyond the northern border.


Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19679

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